TOKYO – Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to announce his resignation by the end of August following a crushing electoral defeat that left his ruling coalition without a majority in both houses of parliament, sources close to the government said Wednesday.
Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito won only 47 seats in Sunday’s upper house election, falling short of the 50 needed to maintain their majority in the 248-seat chamber. The defeat marks the coalition’s worst performance since its establishment in 1999 and compounds the political crisis that began when they lost their lower house majority in an October 2024 snap election.
The dual parliamentary defeats have severely limited the government’s ability to pass legislation, with Ishiba’s coalition now lacking majorities in both chambers for the first time in decades. Political analysts had predicted that such a substantial loss would likely force the prime minister’s resignation, following historical precedent where the last three LDP leaders who lost upper house majorities stepped down within two months.
Initially, Ishiba attempted to remain in office, citing the need to complete urgent US-Japan trade negotiations to avoid creating a political vacuum. However, after securing a trade deal with Washington on Wednesday that reduced tariffs from 25% to 15%, Japanese media reported that he had conveyed his intention to resign to close associates.
The electoral setback reflected widespread public frustration with rising inflation, particularly the doubling of rice prices due to poor harvests, economic stagnation, and political scandals that have plagued the LDP. Ishiba’s cabinet approval ratings have plummeted to just 31% according to recent polls, down from 39% in early June.
Opposition parties capitalized on voter discontent, with smaller right-wing populist parties making significant gains. The far-right Sanseito party, campaigning on anti-immigration themes, secured seven seats according to exit polls, while the Democratic Party for the People won 17 seats with policies popular among younger voters.
Ishiba is expected to formally announce his resignation after several important August events, including commemorations of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the World War II anniversary on August 15, and an international conference on African development in Yokohama from August 20-22.
The resignation will trigger a leadership contest within the LDP, with potential candidates including Sanae Takaichi, Takayuki Kobayashi, and Shinro Koumi. However, any new leader will face the same fundamental challenge of governing without parliamentary majorities at a critical time when Japan confronts ongoing economic difficulties and complex international relations.
The political instability threatens to complicate Japan’s ability to address pressing domestic and foreign policy challenges, marking a significant shift in Japanese politics and highlighting growing public dissatisfaction with the long-dominant LDP’s governance.
